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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +3, wheat mixed, crude oil -.19, dollar -.09, gold +3.0 and the Dow -9.
  • Mixed trade overnight. Pro Farmer underscoring that it’s a good crop – but not likely to meet USDA expectations. US corn export competitiveness slipping vs Argentina.
  • Pro Farmer estimated Iowa at 188.1 bpa. USDA is currently at 197 bpa. Last year the tour forecast Iowa corn at 180.2 bpa vs the final USDA of 192 bpa.
  • Pro Farmer will release its national yield estimate and adjusted state yields later today.
  • Rain showers look to persist in the central corn-belt for the next five days – contributing to growing disease and crop conditions for maturing soybeans and corn. Market will be tuned into Gulf storm activity as exceptionally warm waters will provide fuel for tropical storms. Storm “Gaston” is currently in the mid-Atlantic.
  • Thursday funds were estimated sellers of 15,000 soybeans, 10,000 corn and 2,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Scattered weekend showers mainly favor C. & SW Midwest corn/soy, but heavy totals likely remain localized

·         Occasional 6-10 day showers SW Midwest, but next surge of rain mainly late 6-10/11-15 day in N. & W. Midwest

·         Localized areas of excess rain possible in early Sep. (centered on IA), but odds of severe wetness seem low

·         Lingering 1-5 day Delta showers (mainly rest of week); drier weather then eases recent wetness & aids corn harvest

·         Tropical storm risks have diminished further during the next week; mainly a rain-maker for FL & Southeast coast

·         Active storm track heading into Sep. will increase Canadian wetness; slows wheat/canola maturation & early harvest

International Overview

·         Australia Wheat/Canola Still Favored for Extensive Rains as Crop Needs Start to Peak

·         Typhoon Lionrock Tracks Into Northeast China Corn/Soy Next Week, Raising Wetness Damage Risks

·         Arg. Weekend Rains Limited to NE 1/4 of Wheat; Drier Euro Preferred Next Week, Keeping Dryness in Place

·         Europe/FSU Wheat Harvest Remains Favored by Very Limited Rain Potential Next 10 Days

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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