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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1/2, soybeans -1/2, wheat +2, crude oil +.39, dollar +.18, gold -3.0 and the Dow +4.
  • Mixed trade overnight with strength capped by the large oncoming supply but wheat is higher in its oversold condition.
  • Good/Excellent ratings remained unchanged for corn and bumped up one for point. Corn is 60% dented compared to 52% on average. Arkansas corn harvest was rated at 22% complete.
  • The European Commission lowered their estimate for EU soft wheat production to 142 mln mt vs last month’s estimate of 144.5. They raised their EU corn estimate to 67 mln mt vs last month at 65.5 mln mt.
  • Rains depart for the end of the week before returning again to the central Midwest.
  • Demand continues to be strong and will grow on lower prices. US is maintaining the most competitive position on the global corn market. Further breaks will encourage end users to step up with coverage. Typical seasonal lows come in corn at the end of September, but similar large crop situations often bottom in the beginning of September.
  • Funds were estimated sellers yesterday of 11,000 corn, 1,000 soybeans and 6,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


·         Patchy showers mainly next 2 days in C. & SW Midwest, then drier rest of week to aid maturing corn/soy

·         Wetter weather for much of 6-15 day, particularly NE/KS/IA/S. MN/WI; slows early harvest, limited damage threat

·         Limited rain pattern in Delta/Southeast aids corn harvest; need to monitor tropics for Southeast late in 11-15 day

·         Tropical storm crosses N. FL on Thu.; north of most citrus, too far south for much Southeast corn/soy/cotton impact

·         Favorably wet pattern currently continues to build pre-planting moisture in Plains winter wheat belt

·         Limited threat of excessive rain, but fairly frequent rains to slow Canada wheat/canola harvest (particularly west)



All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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