Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -1/4, soybeans -7, wheat +1, crude oil -.37, dollar +.03, gold even and the Dow -8.
• Mixed overnight trade with soybeans lower on continued fund long liquidation to end August.
• Gulf basis on corn was off yesterday as harvest gets going in the south but shipment pace continues to be exceptional on global demand for US corn.
• Cash soymeal values firmed yesterday.
• First Notice Day yesterday in September contracts added selling pressure to the market.
• Egypt is tendering for October shipment wheat.
• Yesterday funds were estimated sellers of 11,500 corn 7,500 soybeans and 3,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Limited showers rest of week aid maturing corn/soy; wet weather returns to W. Midwest in 6-15 day

·         Rains will hinder maturing corn/soy and slow early harvest; IA/MN/WI at most risk for pockets of excessive rain

·         Limited rains in Delta next 2 weeks aid corn harvest, earlier wetness concerns easing somewhat for soy/cotton/rice

·         Tropical storm catches S. GA/E. Carolinas Fri./Sat.; minor damage possible to soy/cotton due to heavy rain/wind

·         Another possible tropical system to watch for Southeast in 11-15 day, but potential track still very uncertain

·         Canada wheat/canola harvest slow at times due to frequent showers next 2 weeks; heaviest in west late this week

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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