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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +3, soybeans +3, wheat +5, crude oil -.12, dollar -.02, gold -1.0 and the Dow +35.
  • Higher markets overnight on a new month of trading, oversold technical conditions and user buying.
  • Weekly export sales will be out this morning.
  • USDA will release its July crush report tomorrow. Estimates for crush at 153.2 mln bu vs 154.1 mln in June.
  • FC Stone will release updated production estimates tomorrow afternoon.
  • Yesterday finished August trade, yielding the lowest monthly close in corn since September of 2006.
  • EIA report on Ethanol had ethanol production at 1.02 mln bbls/day, off 5,000/day from the previous week.
  • China bought a couple of US soybean cargoes yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Return of wetter pattern to W. Midwest delayed slightly next week, mainly holds off until 6-15 day

·         Rains will hinder corn/soy maturation; localized excess rain possible MN/IA/WI, but damage risk to corn/soy limited

·         Very early harvest will be hindered by wet conditions in west, while favorable progress next 2 weeks in most of Delta

·         T.S. Hermine to bring heavy rain/minor damage to mainly soy/cotton in GA/NC/SC Fri./Sat. AM; no threat to FL citrus

·         N. Plains spring wheat harvest largely complete before onset of wetter period next week; another break in 11-15 day

·         Wet weather slows wheat/canola harvest in W. Canada rest of week; not as active in 6-15 day, but occ’l interruptions

 

International Overview

·         Rains Lighter Across NE China Corn/Soy Next 10 Days, Keeping Damage Potential Minor

 

·         Lack of Rains in Ukraine Next 2 Weeks Likely to Delay Winter Wheat Seeding in 1/2 of Belt

 

·         Australia Wheat Dryness Still a Concern for S. 1/4; Showers Late Next Week Possible, But Low Confidence

 

·         Southward Shift in India Rains Underperforming This Week, Potential 11-15 Day Rains Will Be Needed

 

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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