Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn +3, soybeans +7, wheat +4, crude oil +44, dollar +.06, gold +1.0 and the Dow -11.
• Higher markets overnight on short-covering and more user buying. More private estimates will be out today with expectations to be lower than USDA’s August estimate.
• Year to date new crop soybean sales stand at 35% of USDA estimate vs the five year average for this date of 39%.
• Year to date new crop corn sales stand at 21% of the USDA estimate vs the five year average for this date of 25%.
• USDA reported corn for ethanol in July totaled 455.4 mln bu vs 448.4 mln a year ago.
• Cash soymeal values have firmed in the east by $1 to $2.
• Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 corn and 3,000 wheat and even on soybeans yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Trop. Storm Hermine leads to some flooding damage (locally 6 to 9”) to GA/SC/NC cotton/soy & NC corn thru tonight

·         Drier pattern then allows recovery for Southeast through next week to limit concerns; negligible impact to FL citrus

·         Active storm track from Mon. into next weekend hinders maturing corn/soy in W. Midwest, but 11-15 day not as wet

·         N. Delta wetter in 6-10 day (mainly late next week) to slow corn/soy harvest, but 11-15 day favorably dry

·         Light frost on GFS operational model near MN/WI border at end of 11-15 day very unlikely, no other model support

·         Rains today/wetter 6-10 day slow Canada wheat/canola harvest; slight 11-15 day frost chance in NW poses no threat

International Overview

·         Brazil Rains Enhance Moisture for Heading Wheat/Corn Germination Next 10 Days; Arg. Wheat Still Dry

·         Ukraine Wheat Still Lacking Moisture for Winter Wheat Seeding in 1/2 of Belt Next 2 Weeks

·         Australia Wheat Has Better Potential for Rains in Drier South 1/4 of Belt Late Next Week to Stabilize Crop

·         India Groundnuts Dependent on Return of Rains in 11-15 Day to Avert Moisture Stress in 20% of Belt

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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