Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -2, wheat -3, crude oil +.22, dollar -.19, gold +9.0 and the Dow +18.
• Lower grain trade this morning as private analysts continue to maintain large estimates for final yields.
• Friday Informa raised their corn yield to 174.8 bpa from last month’s 169.8 and raised their soybean yield to 49.5 bpa from last month at 47.7. FC Stone raised its corn yield estimate to 175.6 vs last month at 175.0 and their soybean yield up to 50.1 bpa vs last month at 48.8 bpa.
• Trade anticipating little to no change in crop condition ratings this afternoon.
• China failed to sell any reserve corn today of the 1.2 mln mt offered. Poor quality and low global corn prices are making for a tough sell.
• CFTC data Friday showed Managed Money added -8,561 to their net short corn position, taking them to a net short position of -162,503. Managed Money continued soybean long liquidation and added to their net short in wheat.
• Friday funds reportedly bought 5,000 corn, 2,500 soybeans and 2,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Drier until late 6-10 day in south-central GA/C. & NE SC/far E. NC soy/cotton, aids recovery from recent tropical rains

·         Heaviest Midwest weekend rain (3”+) in parts of NW IA/far SW MN/S. SD/E. ND/NW KS, mainly past 2 days

·         Wet pattern this week hinders maturing corn/soy in much of Midwest; locally heavy from SW into Great Lakes

·         Additional showers (favor W. Midwest) at middle of 6-10 day & 11-15 day but not as heavy, limiting damage threats

·         Limited Delta corn/soy harvest delays next 2 weeks, while Plains rain aids moisture for early-seeded winter wheat

·         Scattered rains in next week slow Canada wheat/canola harvest, ease at mid-month; occ’l frost too late for damage

International Overview

·         Argentina Rains Early Next Week Likely Too Light to Ease Moisture Shortages in SW 1/2 of Belt

·         Showers Likely to Miss Dry 1/2 of Ukraine Wheat Belt Next Week, Delaying Winter Wheat Seeding

·         Australia Wheat to See Rains in Drier South 1/4 of Belt Later This Week Reduce Moisture Shortages

·         India Groundnuts Still Favored for Rain Relief in 6-10 Day to Avert Moisture Stress in South

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528