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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1 ½, soybeans +1, wheat -1, crude oil -.70, dollar -.02, gold -3.0 and the Dow -70.
  • Mixed trade overnight. Trade ticking off time ahead of Monday’s USDA report. Analyst expectation for Monday is for a lowering of USDA corn yield and a small increase in soybean yield vs August estimate.
  • EIA ethanol report showed production at 998,000 bbls per day, off 25k from the previous week. Stocks came in at 20.6 mln bbls, down 272,000 bbls from last week.
  • In Ukraine and northern Europe, fall seedings are going into dry soil and concern is growing for the start to the 2017 European wheat crop.
  • Talk that China was in buying 2 or 3 cargoes of US soybeans yesterday.
  • FOB Gulf corn values weaker on the progressing Delta harvest.
  • Cash soy meals were seen stronger yesterday. Some markets up $2 to $3.
  • Funds were seen buyers of 8,000 corn, 2,000 wheat and sellers of 3,000 soybeans yesterday.
  • Export sales will be out this morning, CFTC position data out this afternoon.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


·         Rains heaviest in SE KS/C. MO/SE IN in past day, with showers continuing next 2 days in MS Valley/S. Midwest

·         Break from rain early next week; rain returns to SW Midwest Tue.; wetter next Fri.-Sun., slows early Midwest harvest

·         Scattered 11-15 day showers (mainly late) favor SW Midwest, but drier versus yesterday; main wetness risk MO/KS

·         No signs of notable frost risks next 2 weeks in Midwest, with patchy frost limited to Canada at middle of next week

·         Limited corn/soy harvest interruptions for most of South next 2 weeks, with main rain chance in Delta in 6-10 day

·         Frequent rains bolster moisture for early-seeded Plains wheat; Canada wheat/canola harvest delays begin to ease


International Overview

·         Rains Sufficient to Aid East 1/2 Arg. Wheat Next Week; West 1/2 Still Likely to Remain Unfavorably Dry

·         Ukraine Wheat Lacks Rain Next 2 Weeks, Hampers Seeding/Germination in Over 1/2 of Belt

·         S. Australia Rains Benefit Dry Wheat Yesterday; Driest 10% of Belt to See Rains Next Week

·         India Rains Increase Next Week, Aiding All Sugar/Cotton; South 1/4 of Groundnuts at Risk of Missing Relief


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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