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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2 ½, soybeans -4 ½, wheat -1, crude oil -.63, dollar +.15, gold -1.0 and the Dow -30.
  • Grain markets softer this morning. Quiet news. Big crop looming but traders are looking for more yield reports next week. Forecast rains may hamper widespread harvest getting started.
  • Yesterday’s corn export sales were a little below expectations at 700mt as Argentina and Ukraine try to edge in on future business. Year to date sales now stand at 17 mln mt vs 9.3 mln mt last year on this date.
  • NOPA crush report came in below the trade expectations for August. Soy oil stocks were down from July, but close to trade expectations.
  • A good wheat crop is coming on in Australia. The market will be watching if rains appear for the October/November harvest period. A similar even in 2010 caused quality issues for the Australian crop due to La Nina conditions.
  • Yesterday funds bought 4,000 soybeans and sold 4,500 corn, 2,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Overnight rains in W. Midwest corn/soy keep fields wet; locally heavy near NE/IA & IA/SD borders, isolated damage

·         Showers head east next 2 days and favor OH Valley; W. Midwest drier for 4 days, east dries out much of next week

·         Damage limited in 6-15 day, but shower events keep early corn/soy harvest slow in W. Midwest; minimal frost risks

·         Intermittent showers in Delta/Southeast but only minor corn/soy harvest interruptions expected

·         More limited showers to aid Plains wheat seeding; lingering W. TX showers into weekend & late 6-10 day not ideal

·         Return of more frequent showers next week & 11-15 day to slow Canadian wheat/canola harvest again

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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