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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -4 ½, wheat -3, crude oil +.89, dollar -.14, gold +9.0 and the Dow +56.
  • Lower grain markets this morning on harvest progress, above expectation soybean yield reports and technical resistance.
  • The Fed will be out with their decision on interest rates this afternoon. The market is betting that there won’t be an increase until December.
  • The US dollar continues its consolidation, caught between the threat of future higher interest rates increasing its value and the stronger economic signs in emerging markets strengthening their currencies relative to the dollar.
  • Palm oil futures were lower overnight following several days of higher trade. Look for stocks to continue to tighten going forward.
  • Decent rains are expected over northern Brazil to aid in their spring planting. The outlook over the next few months is for moderate weather in northern Brazil but dryer/warmer in southern Brazil and Argentina.
  • Yesterday funds bought 10,000 soybeans, 5,000 corn and 700 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Rains in Midwest limited to SE MN/W. WI yesterday; heavy rains in NE NC/SE VA led to cotton damage

·         Rains in NW 1/4 Midwest rest of week exacerbating disease/flooding in N. IA/S. MN/WI; elsewhere harvest favorable

·         Rains early next week and again in 11-15 day keep harvest very slow in W. 1/2 Midwest; E. 1/2 harvest delays minor

·         Delta rains slow harvest in W. 1/2 early next week; rains in persist in NC/VA today damaging cotton

·         Plains rains likely to ease spotty dryness in KS/OK wheat in next week but threaten W. TX cotton quality

·         Weekend rains to stall Canadian wheat/canola harvest in E. 2/3 but next week’s dryness allows harvest recovery

 

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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