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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1/2, soybeans +2, wheat -2, crude oil +.80, dollar -.57, gold +7.0 and the Dow +70.
  • Mixed trade in grains this morning. China demand and weaker dollar supporting soybeans while corn is struggling at technical resistance and losing some global price competitiveness. Risk of harvest delays in the northern and western belt.
  • Soybean yields continue to impress in many areas that are getting started, leading the trade to expect further increases in soy national yields.
  • Corn yield so far seem to be most disappointing in the eastern belt as the market waits for more news out of the west.
  • EIA ethanol production yesterday was at 981,000 bbls/day, off 23k from last week while stocks came in at 20 mln bbls, off 191,000 from last week.
  • USDA monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. On Feed estimate at 101.1% of a year ago.
  • Egypt is trying to tender for what again.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


·         Heavy rains in SE MN/NE IA/C. WI causing localized flooding; additional flooding in NE NC/SE VA damaged cotton

·         Rains in NW 1/4 Midwest taper off today; more early next week keeping flooding risk and disease ongoing concerns

·         Rains in 11-15 day keep harvest very slow in NW Midwest but E. 1/2 harvest delays remain minor next 2 weeks

·         Delta rains heavier next week stalling cotton/soy harvest with cotton quality decline possible; Southeast dries out

·         Weekend rains help eradicate dry spots in S. Plains wheat for favorable germination; W. TX cotton rains more limited

·         Canadian wheat/canola harvest see rains set back harvest in E. 2/3 this weekend but harvest recovers next week



All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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