Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

SHARE

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2014/11/image00910.jpg

Overnight Highlights

·         Ukraine accuses Russia of moving troops into rebel-controlled territory as new fighting there threatens a two-month old truce.

·         The dollar consolidated modestly lower within the previous day’s trading range overnight as the European Central Bank prepares to meet to consider its monetary policy. The Bank of England already voted to keep interest rates low at 0.5% early this morning.

·         Some processors are firming corn and soybean basis once again as farmer selling of those crops remains limited amid lingering reluctance to sell at current price levels.

·         Export demand for wheat remains lackluster.

·         December corn is consolidating above support at $3.60, while soybeans consolidate above support at $9.95 to $10. Breaks below those levels would likely accelerate speculative selling.

·         Both came under pressure again overnight as the trade focuses on the accelerating harvest of this year’s big crops.

·         Private production estimates are increasing sentiment that USDA will raise the size of this year’s crops on Monday. Trade expectations are below.

·         The Midwest will turn cold next week, limiting wheat growth, but pushing showers far to the south.

·         Rains are expected to be widespread in Brazil this weekend into next week.

U.S. Yields & Production

2014-15

2014-15

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

Yield in bushels per acre

Production in billions of bushels

USDA November 10

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

175.233

47.608

14.551

3.967

Highest Trade Estimate

178.600

48.700

14.842

4.064

Lowest Trade Estimate

171.400

46.800

14.242

3.903

Previous USDA Estimate

174.200

47.100

14.475

3.927

Water Street Solutions

176.000

48.000

14.626

4.003

 

U.S. Ending Stocks

2014-15

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA November Report

Average Trade Estimate

0.660

2.135

0.442

Highest Trade Estimate

0.682

2.282

0.513

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.634

1.850

0.403

Previous USDA Estimate

0.654

2.081

0.450

Water Street Solutions

0.659

2.227

0.403

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., rains were .25 to 1.5” in the Delta and .10 to .50” in the northwest Midwest yesterday. Very light showers today slow harvest in the eastern 1/4 of the Midwest, but drier Midwest/Delta trends through the weekend aid progress. A strong cold surge next week could produce 2 to 4” snowfall in the northern Midwest early next week, but damage potential is minimal. The cold pushes Midwest wheat into dormancy, cutting short growth for 1/4 of the belt and leaving it more vulnerable to winterkill this season. The Central Plains could also go dormant, with about 15% of hard red winter wheat underdeveloped.

In South America, showers were limited yesterday, primarily occurring along western and eastern edges of Mato Grosso and into a few spots in western Goias, central/southeast Minas Gerais, and eastern Sao Paulo. Dry spots linger in about 20% of corn/soy areas (mainly patchy sections of central Parana, central Mato Grosso do Sul, and east-central Mato Grosso), but limited showers are aiding fieldwork elsewhere ahead of wetter mid to late-month trends in the north. Rains spread across nearly all of Brazil from this weekend into next week and aid corn/soy/coffee/sugar, although a few dry spots could persist in Parana.

Isolated showers occurred in southwest Buenos Aires yesterday and are limited to the far west late this week. Showers late Tuesday/Wednesday shifted farther north and may focus largely north of the wettest spots in Buenos Aires. Our forecast does still bring rain back to the south by the middle of the 11 to 15 day though, although model agreement is poor. Drier weather is needed in the south to aid late seeding (15% of corn) and to ease disease threats (1/3 of wheat).

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2014/11/image01010.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2014/11/image01110.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2014/11/image01210.png

www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528

 

 

https://www.waterstreet.org/s/ws-80x70.png

Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.