Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -2 ½, soybeans -3/4, wheat -1, crude oil +.61, dollar -.25, gold -1.0 and the Dow -88.
• Lower markets this morning on dryer forecast for the Midwest to aid harvest progress. Generally very good to mixed corn reports and good to exceptional soy yields.
• Trade looking for USDA corn harvest progress this afternoon to be 15 to 20% complete compared to an average for the date of 19%.
• CFTC data showed that for the week ending Tuesday, Managed Money had added to their net short corn, added to their net long soy and added to their net short wheat.
• USDA Cattle on Feed showed On Feed 102% vs 101.1% estimate, Placements 115% vs 112.6% estimate, Marketings 118% vs 116.7% estimated.
• Talk that China was shopping more US soybeans on Friday.
• USDA Quarterly Stocks report Friday.
• Funds Friday sold 9,000 soybeans, 2,000 corn and 200 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Weekend rains heaviest (locally 3 to 7”+) from C. TX into E. KS; mostly 1 to 2” into W. Midwest, patchy farther east

·         WI/MN/IA/E. NE/E. KS drier until at least next Mon. to ease wetness; far E. Midwest/Mid-Atlantic wettest this week

·         Return of rains in balance of 6-15 day slows W. Midwest corn/soy harvest again, but limited damage risks

·         Need to watch tropics in 6-15 day, but fairly dry pattern currently projected to aid corn/soy/cotton harvest in South

·         Favorable planting prospects for Plains wheat this week; 6-15 day showers may still miss drier patches in CO/SW KS

·         Wheat/canola harvest in N. & W. Can. Prairies slows again late this week & 6-10 day; break possible in 11-15 day

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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