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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -4, wheat -1, crude oil +.46, dollar +.15, gold even and the Dow +12.
  • Lower grains overnight from better harvest weather prospects. Soy yields in many regions continue to impress. China continues to loom as a buyer on breaks for soybeans.
  • Safras Mercado estimates Brazil corn planting at 16% vs 21% last year. Soy planting is estimated at 1%. Rain forecasts for next week should aid their seeding in the currently dry central belt.
  • Barge freight has jumped sharply on brisk harvest movement of corn and soybeans to river houses.
  • Talk is that China was back in the market yesterday, buying 5+ cargoes from the US and a couple from Brazil.
  • Cedar Rapid’s river crested at its second highest level on record yesterday. Officials said flood walls prevented widespread damage.
  • Trade continues to anticipate Friday’s Quarterly Stocks report.
  • Hogs and Pigs report will be out Friday. Analysts expect all hogs and pigs at 101% of year ago levels.
  • Ukraine wheat still experiencing dryness while Argentina is expecting relief rains. In the US wheat some dry spots are developing in SW Kansas.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


·         Slow-moving disturbance leads to scattered showers rest of week in E. Midwest, but wet areas in west favorably dry

·         E. Midwest corn/soy harvest interruptions otherwise limited; minor delays return to west Tue./Wed. & 11-15 day

·         Very wet (locally 6”) for already wet soy/cotton areas in VA/MD/DE rest of week, additional quality declines expected

·         South favorably dry for corn/soy/cotton harvest; monitoring tropical storm next week, but low risk at this point

·         Plains wheat seeding moves along fairly well; 6-10 day showers may still miss developing dry spots in SW KS

·         Rains slow Canadian wheat/canola harvest at times into next week; heaviest likely in largely completed eastern belt


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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