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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         Corn up 1 to 2, Soybeans up 9 to 10 and Wheat mixed in overnight trade in fairly light trade.

·         Soybeans find support from cash markets and continued strong weekly shipments.

·         Monday funds sold 9,000 contracts of corn, 3,000 wheat, 2,000 meal were flat on soybeans and bought 3,000 soy oil.

·         Markets will close Wednesday at 1:15 p.m., and re-open Friday morning at 8:30 a.m for Thanksgiving holiday.

·         Stocks higher overnight and dollar stable.

·         Brazil analyst AgRural estimated Brazil soybean planting at 76% as of last Friday compared to 79% last year.

·         US corn harvest 94% complete vs 94% last year and 92% average.

·         US soybean harvest 97% complete vs 95% last year and 98% average.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., light snow fell in WI and northern IL (1 to 4”), while rains lingered in the eastern 1/3 of the Midwest (.10 to .75”)

and Southeast (mainly .25 to 1.5”). Rains hang on in the Southeast today. A few light showers are possible in the central

Midwest tomorrow and southeast Midwest next Monday, but the next significant showers for the Midwest/northern Delta hold

off until the middle of next week. This should allow some late harvest progress to resume, and the rain event is more short lived

to help minimize damage potential. Warming next week may encourage germination for late-seeded Midwest wheat.

 

In South America, light showers lingered in northern Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and eastern Buenos Aires yesterday, but Argentina

will be relatively quiet for the balance of the week. Widespread rains do return this weekend and again late the following

weekend, although the GFS guidance is not as wet. However, our forecast sides with the wetter guidance, and this will cause

corn/soy seeding (currently nearing the halfway mark) to slow once again (most notable delays currently in Buenos Aires/

Cordoba). Wetness risks will also ramp back up for maturing wheat, particularly in already wet spots in the south/east (Buenos Aires). Brazil showers occurred in mainly north-central Rio Grande do Sul, Sao Paulo, southwest Minas Gerais, northeast Mato Grosso do Sul, and western Mato Grosso yesterday, but widespread rains over the next 2 weeks should keep moisture favorable in nearly all areas. The main risk will be for locally heavy rain late this week and again late next week in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo that may cause isolated issues with excess moisture.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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