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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         The market will have abbreviated trading hours today, with no overnight session, and the day session ending early at 12:00 CST.

·         The International Grains Council released amended estimates for the 2014/2015 crop, slightly lowering world soybean and wheat production, while increasing corn production and demand.

·         USDA export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 a.m. CST.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., light snow/rain fell in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky, and Southern Illinois on Wednesday (.10 to .35”), with .25 to 1” rains in the Carolinas. Very light showers return to the southeast Midwest/Delta next Monday. More significant rains for the Midwest/Delta are likely late next week. The breaks in significant showers should allow late harvest to progress over the next week. Warming next week aids germination in the far southern Midwest, but there is still about 10% of soft wheat acreage at risk. S. Plains rain next week will ease moisture deficits and aid slow growth in Oklahoma/Texas. Southeast harvest slowly improves in the next 10 days.

In South America, a few light rains scattered into central/northwest Buenos Aires, central Cordoba, and La Pampa in the past 2 days, but the wettest weather still develops this weekend for Argentina and again at the start of the 11 to 15 day. While there will be a drier break for much of the 6 to 10 day, this will still cause corn/soy seeding to slow, with the greatest delays thus far to Buenos Aires and Cordoba corn. Wheat will remain under threat for quality and yield loss as well, particularly in areas of southern/eastern Buenos Aires that have long-term moisture surpluses (1/3 of belt). Brazil rains scattered across central/northwest areas in the past 2 days and favored parts of Mato Grosso, southeast Goias, and southern/western Minas Gerais. Brazil will see widespread rain, with the heaviest activity north in the next 10 days and south/east in the 11 to 15 day. While some pockets of excess moisture are possible in mainly southern Mato Grosso, southern Goias, Minas Gerais, and far northern Sao Paulo into next week, the bulk of crop areas will benefit from the upturn in moisture.

Morning Market Snapshot

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All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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