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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight grain markets: Corn +4 ¾,  Soybeans +2 ½, Wheat + ¾, Crude +.14, gold -1.30, Dollar +.17, Dow futures -4.
  • The market is struggling with building in weather premium, as the GFS and European models have not been in agreement, with the GFS proving to be the least accurate to-date.
  • With drought expanding across the Northern and Western Plains, discussion has centered around the impact of the Dakotas as they comprise 10% of corn planted acres and 14% of beans. Additionally, Kansas planted a record 5.3 million corn acres.
  • Has the market underestimated the impact of weather this year, based on the recent growth in crop production across the Plains?
  • Egypt purchased 300K MT of wheat from Russia, Romania and France, at the highest price in several years, as world cash prices rise.
  • Australia’s wheat crop is in vegetative state but models suggest dryness will continue through August with potential big impact to yield.
  • EIA Energy Stocks report at 9:30am CDT.
  • Tuesday funds bought 6,000 corn, 5,000 soybeans, 3,000 oil, 3,000 meal. Sold 4,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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