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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight grain markets: Corn – ½,  Soybeans -1 ½, Wheat –3, Crude +.07, Gold +10.40, Dollar -.16, Dow futures +54.
  • Expectations for this afternoon’s USDA progress update: corn harvest 25-30% complete compared to 38% average year-to-date, soybean harvest 42-47% complete compared to 47% average.
  • USDA Report Thursday average estimates of corn yield of 170.1 bpa vs. 169.9 in September and production 14.204 vs. 14.184 bbu.
  • USDA Report Thursday average estimates of soybean yield of 50.0 bpa vs. 49.9 with production of 4.447 bbu vs. 4.431 last report.
  • Safras Mercado came out with their estimate for 2017/18 Brazilian soybean production at 114.7 MMT, well above the recent USDA estimate of 107.0 MMT. Brazil’s production in 2016/17 was a record 114 MMT.
  • Commitment of Traders report with options showed managed funds: corn short 143,201 up 9,759; soybeans long 27,758 off 562; wheat short 56,475 off 8,224. Soybean meal long 1,155 off 6,647; soybean oil long 30,716 off 44,913.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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