Home Market Market Watch Morning Update

Morning Update



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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn even, soybeans +2, wheat -3, crude oil +1.20, dollar -.25, gold -9.0 and the Dow +78.
  • Mixed trade overnight ahead of the July stocks report today at 11:00 CT. Near-term weather is supportive for silking but heat ridge looks to be moving into the Midwest past this weekend.
  • Yesterday’s crop condition ratings came in at trade expectations with corn up 1% in the G/E to 76% – 32% percent of the crop seen silking (6% ahead of average. Soybeans were also up 1% to 71% G/E with 7% setting pods. Spring wheat conditions were down 2% to 70% G/E with heading now at 91%.
  • For today’s USDA report the trade is expecting bearish supply and stocks info in corn and wheat but a supportive update in soybeans.
  • The short term outlook continues to be conducive to crop development while a high pressure system is expected to bring extreme head and limit rain after next Monday with the ridge positioned over the Western Midwest.
  • Britain’s Conservative Party elected the current “Home Secretary” Theresa May as the new Prime Minister. While she was a “remain” supporter – the vowed to move forward with the Brexit.  

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In North America, rains favored north-central MT, eastern ND, far northeast SD, central MN, central/southwest IA, far eastern NE, central/northeast KS, northwest MO, southern NC, northeast SC, far southwest GA, southeast AL, and central Saskatchewan in the past day. Scattered showers will continue for the balance of the week (favoring the south), gradually bringing just over 1/2 of the Midwest notable rain. Showers then scatter across much of the northern/eastern Midwest in the first 1/2 of next week, including the chance for drier spots around the Great Lakes to see some slight relief. Hotter/drier trends then occur from the end of the 6 to 10 day into the first 1/2 of the 11 to 15 day, with the best chances for patchy showers in the northern/eastern Midwest. Highs will rise into the 90s across the corn belt, with mid 90s reaching into much of IA, western I L, and MO and low 100s possible into the far west (NE/KS/southern SD). The rainfall ahead of the heat will help to limit the ex-tent of notable corn stress to the hotter far western areas and drier spots around the Great Lakes (1/4 of the Midwest). The strongest heat starts to shift back toward the western U.S. late in the 11 to 15 day, with the warmest/driest 16 to 30 day conditions in the northeast 1/4 of the Midwest corn/soy. Patchy dry areas may also persist in soy areas of the Deep South (mainly AR/MS/LA). Rains in the Canadian Prairies wheat/canola were not as heavy as expected, limiting flooding risks.


In South America, Argentina had scattered light showers across the corn belt yesterday. A few more light showers are possible in the far south next weekend but will miss most corn areas, al-lowing corn harvest to improve in the next ten days. Brazil rains (.25 to 1”, locally 2”) favored the southern 1/4 of wheat yesterday. Showers across much of the wheat belt this week and at the middle of next week aid growth. Corn/sugar harvest delays are limited to the southern third of the belt


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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