Home Market Market Watch Morning Update

Morning Update


Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn -1/2, soybeans -3, wheat -1, crude oil -.88, dollar -.15, gold -5.0 and the Dow +80.
* Grains lower overnight on profit taking, higher dollar and weaker energy market.
* Chatter continues over China washing out at least two Brazilian cargoes, the potential for new standards pertaining to the Zika virus and Chinese shopping for US new crop soybeans.
* Export sales from the USDA out this morning.
* Yesterday’s EIA report showed ethanol production off slightly as expected by the market while the inventory drop was a surprise.
* Hog and Pig report and Commitment of Traders report will be out Friday.
* CME trading will be closed for Good Friday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., snow (2 to 6″, locally 12″) in the past day favored northern CO, western/northeast NE, far northwest KS, northern IA, southeast MN, and central WI. Scattered showers also were noted from eastern TX into southeast OK, AR, southern MO, and central IL. The remnants of this storm head through the Great Lakes and eastern Midwest/TN Valley today and into the Southeast tomorrow. Another storm heads into the S. Plains late in the weekend and then through the southern/eastern Midwest and far northern Delta by Monday, including the chance for some minor relief (.25 to .50″) in dry sections of southwest KS/southeast CO/northern OK. A 6 to 10 day system now tracks farther north in the Plains, but 11 to 15 day shower potential has shifted even farther south and could reach parts of TX/OK as well. While confidence is still not high, the combination of shower events in the S. Plains could at least temporarily narrow the driest areas to less than 1/4 of the wheat belt by the end
of the 15-day period. Lows were in the 20s this morning in the western Plains but not cold enough for damage in any areas that are jointing. Cool pushes over the next two weeks do not look strong enough to threaten wheat damage in the Midwest or Plains but will need to be watched. Planting interruptions will be most frequent in LA/MS/AL/GA during the next two weeks.

In South America, rain (.25 to 1″, locally 2″) fell in Mato Grosso/Mato Grosso do Sul/Sao Paulo/northern Parana/southeast Minas Gerais yesterday. Rains remain active across safrinha corn through the weekend, easing spotty moisture shortages in the Mato Grosso. The rains will slow soy/first-crop corn harvest in the south, but damage should be isolated (mainly Rio Grande do Sul). Robusta coffee remains outside the rain band in the next 10 days, cutting yields. Argentina dryness holds for the next 8 days, allowing harvest to accelerate. Rains late next week look moderate.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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