Planting Forecast: 5 Complete Dry Days

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Key to planting sits with next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dry weather continues through Monday. With this past Thursday and Friday staying dry, that means we will be able to claim 5 complete dry days on our timeline by the time the sun sets Monday. Temps will be climbing slightly through this weekend, but will not really exceed normal. Most of this is due to the fact that we really do not see any significant south wind over the weekend, but rather more easterly flow, which does not promote strong warming. The set up will produce some drying, but time will tell if it is enough. The same can be said about a rise in soil temperatures.

We are dry again next Thursday through Sunday morning

That leaves us with Tuesday and Wednesday. We have moisture lifting up from the south, and a weakening front coming from the north. There is a chance of scattered precipitation, but coverage is sketchy. Rains start to push up into southern Indiana next Tuesday mid-morning to mid-afternoon. From there, we see a slow spread north, to eventually bring scattered showers to 60% of the state for the balance of Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture totals have a wide range, from .1” or less up north to a combined total of .8” in southern Indiana. The magnitude of precipitation will dictate field work potential for the 3 and a half dry days to finish the week. There likely is an opportunity here, especially if there is no concern on soil temps. If its dry, guys should go, even if soil temps are not quite there yet. The 10-day precipitation map is below. The rain totals here basically all come from the Tuesday-Wednesday period.

Behind that moisture, we dry back down for 3 to 3 and a half days, for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and the first part of Sunday (29th). So, short term, this window we have through Monday is about the best we can do. Conditions will be breezy through the weekend, so spraying may be limited to early morning or early evening hours, if at all. This kind of forecast is one we need, but we need it for a bit longer than 5 days total. Whether we can get that hinges solely on Tuesday-Wednesday.

Temps remain cool through the end of the month. Not bitter cold…but cool.

Extended Period

We kick off a very active pattern for the extended 11-16 day forecast window. Rains of .5”-1” move across the state with 90% coverage for the 29th and 30th. We take a brief break for Tuesday May 1st and also the 2nd, but we really still have plenty of clouds possible and a damp overall feel. Then heavy rains are back for the 3rd through the 5th, with half to 1.5” possible, and there is an outside chance for some isolated 2” totals. Coverage of those early may rains will be 100% of the state.

Weeks 3 & 4:

 

Cold air remains a big factor going into mid may. Temps look to be below normal for both week’s 3 and 4. Precipitation will be near normal for week 3, and below normal for week 4. Fronts of note will be a cold front passage for the 7th-8th bringing up to .75” rains, and then a strong front late in week 5, around the 14th-15th that can have some 1-2 inch rain potential. Both fronts will usher in Canadian air.

 

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)
Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)