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Planting Forecast: More Moisture Than We Would Like


What a difference a week makes. Last week we were very optimistic about a nice dry stretch. That optimism faded fast early in the week as we watched a low get cut off in the upper levels of the atmosphere, after running into a tropical system off the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas and getting knocked out of its band of steering winds.

That led to a cooler, damp week for a large part of the eastern corn belt. Temps will climb in our planting forecast today, but we still have more moisture than we would really like in our forecast going forward for the next 8 days. At least the coverage is a little more spotty on a day to day basis…but it still be a challenge to work through these remaining acres.

Saturday does look dry for most of Indiana. Expect a mix of clouds and sun and temps will push higher, getting closer to normal – even above normal in some areas of central and southern Indiana. We feel this is a short lived event, though.

Saturday evening, scattered showers start to drift in from the north, and we have a chance of scattered showers all day Sunday. In fact, we have a chance of rain in the forecast every day from Sunday through next Saturday, except for Thursday.

Overnight Saturday night through Sunday we can see .1”-.6” with 50% statewide coverage. Monday scattered showers bring a few hundredths to .3″ with 60% coverage. Tuesday clouds increase after some morning sun and showers move through afternoon & overnight.

That round could yield a few hundredths to .3″ and 40% coverage Wednesday scattered showers trigger .25″-.65″ on 75% statewide coverage. All of those days, if and when not raining, we still see clouds and some sun, but generally not many “full sun” period. Evaporation will be slow to nearly non-existent.

Next Thursday will be dry with mostly sunny skies. Then We are back to rain with shower sand thunderstorms net Friday and Saturday. Combined totals for the 2 days will be .25″-1.5″ with 100% coverage. Combined 10 day rain totals will end up at 1.25″-2.5″ over 100% of Indiana.

The map below shows our potential 10 day rain totals. This will not allow for much field work, and minimal drying. We wont completely rule out any ability to run this week, because there are enough holes to at least leave a prospect or two. To have a chance at that, we actually will have to miss more than one of these little shower events to make net drying a possibility, and that will be tough. This is a very unsettled pattern we find ourselves in.

Extended Period:
The extended period does look to swing drier. Behind that front for next Friday and Saturday, we see cooler air and a strong high pressure dome coming in from the west and northwest. This should give us 4 days of sunny, dry weather from Sunday the 31st through Wednesday the 3rd. We think chances are still good for that dry pattern to continue through the rest of the extended period, from the 4th through the 6th, but have to watch for just 1 hiccup. Right now, we see a cold front sweeping east for later Thursday afternoon (6/4) and Friday (6/5). We think the best precipitation from the front can stay north into the Great Lakes, but cant quite give the all clear…so if we can miss any shower and/or thunderstorm threats there, we will be good go go through the end of that week. We will be keeping our fingers crossed. That week will finally feature potential for good drying, and strong evaporation…features that are lacking in the current pattern and our expectations for the next 10 days.

Weeks 3 & 4:
Dryness continues into weeks three and four. One system late in the week of the 7th brings up to half an inch, then we could e dry for all of the week of the 14th. Precipitation well below normal. It will be warm with well above normal temps in week 3, meaning that front during that week likely features strong thunderstorms. Then temps cool to near normal for week four behind the front.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

Week 4
Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)