Saturday rain returns to the state, and just like Friday, it looks like the best chances will be a little farther south. Showers and thunderstorms work through from west to east, but generally will stay south of US 24. Rain totals can be from .25” to 1.25” with coverage at 90% south of US 24. We won’t rule out an isolated shower or two north, but generally, northern locations are able to miss out on this batch too. All parts of the state become partly sunny on Sunday and remain partly to mostly sunny on Monday.
Our next big batch of moisture starts to push in on Tuesday, and we are wet through the middle 3 days of the week this coming week. Tuesday showers affect mainly areas from I-70 northward, bringing .25”-.5” totals and 70% coverage. Wednesday is just a damp feeling day without a lot of new precipitation. We won’t deny there is a chance for scattered showers, but amounts will be a few hundredths to a quarter inch total, and coverage will be 40% or less. The big rain day comes Thursday (or actually overnight Wednesday night through Thursday midday) with rain and thunderstorms producing .25”-1” of rain and 100% coverage. This will bring combined rains to .5”-2” for the event, which is unchanged from our previous forecast. With only 2 dry days ahead of that moisture…we truly see no net drying through the end of next week. We should see partly sunny skies emerge next Friday. The map below shows cumulative rain potential for the week this coming week.
Drier weather tries to emerge next weekend, although we still have a bit of concern in the back of our minds about a thunderstorm cluster Saturday night. Currently, it looks to stay outside of the region.
Better news is emerging as we finish the 10-day window and move into the extended period. We see sunshine returning for Sunday the 12th, and then our system for early in the 11-16 day widow has diminished greatly. The way we see things now, there is potential for the week after next two be dry with a mix of clouds and sun from Monday the 13th through Thursday the 16th. That would mean at least 5 days back to back of dry weather – maybe as many as 7 if thunderstorms stay away this coming Saturday night, for our first period of net drying in a long time. There is still plenty that can go wrong here, namely that early week system re-strengthening…but tentatively we are going to try and put a little bit of good news out there. Rain is back for the end of the extended period, with .25”-1” totals likely for the combine period of Friday the 17th through Saturday the 18th.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Weeks 3 and 4 are looking drier (thankfully), but still cool. Right now we see one big system bringing half to 1.5″ rains to the state on the 21st. But the rest of the period may be mostly rain free!
Soil temps as of Friday (5/3)