Burgess on planting intentions report
Old crop corn and soybeans benefited from lower stocks than average estimates when USDA released the much anticipated March reports. The new crop corn market got a boost from a lower than expected planted acreage number for 2014. The number is estimated at 91.7 million acres, down 4 percent from last year.
“That was a sizable revision lower from what we saw last year and it was a little bit light relative to trade expectations coming into the report,” said Logan Burgess with Grain Hedge. “It was about a million acres below the average trade guess. As a result we’re seeing some strength out of the new crop corn and looking to make a little bit of a breakout here from our recent trade range. So I think today’s report puts new crop corn on some good footing here.”
If realized it would be the lowest planted acreage in the United States since 2010, but still the fifth largest corn acreage in the United States since 1944. Expected acreage for Indiana dropped 3 percent to 5.8 million.
As expected the soybean planted area for 2014 went up and is estimated at a record high 81.5 million acres, up 6 percent from last year.
“That’s 5 million acres larger than what we had last year and the number was about 500,000 acres above what traders were expecting coming into the report,” Burgess said. “Soybeans remain a different story than corn. We’ve seen a really good run in this new crop market off the January lows and right now if I was a soybean producer I would be keeping a close eye on this new crop contract. I think the report sets up a little bit of a bearish story here for soybeans moving forward.”
Compared with last year, soybean planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged across all states with the exception of Missouri and Oklahoma. Indiana saw a jump of 6 percent to 5.5 million acres.
Now with the acres foundation established, Burgess says the trade turns its attention to weather in the coming days, weeks, and months.