One of the best attended seminars at last week’s Indiana Farm Equipment and Technology Expo was the annual outlook presented by Dr. Chris Hurt. In his first outlook presentation of the fall, Dr. Hurt said corn acreage is likely to be up in 2019 but not to the extent that the market is expecting.
“We are still seeing that soybeans give better returns than corn for 2019. While there will be likely be more corn planted in 2019 because of a rotational shift back to corn from soybeans, I do not think the shift will be as great as the market has been expecting.”
Hurt told HAT in an interview after his presentation that the new year is one that will be filled with uncertainty and that, as a result, growers should plan to be flexible with planting and marketing plans.
“There is a lot of uncertainty that can drive corn and soybean prices, so trying to maintain some flexibility will be something producers will want to do this winter.”
While prices this fall are below where producers want them to be, Hurt said the higher than expected yields will put more money in producer pockets and that next year will likely see improved prices.
“We could see new crop corn futures hit $4.25. This is a level that will give producers cash prices in the high $3 range. Soybean futures have a chance to hit $10 on new crop; that will give us about $9.60 cash prices.” He added, with our large soybean carryover, this is about the best we can expect.
But, making the new year more challenging will be an increase in production costs with higher prices expected for fertilizer.