A new grain price outlook underlines continuing long-term challenges for U.S. farmers. Rabo AgriFinance just released its ten-year outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat.
The report says ending stocks will continue to be an issue for the crops, as the long-term trends for yield increases make up the difference in lower acre numbers while demand remains flat.
The report says these stocks will keep a lid on commodity prices. Even if the U.S. and Chinese government’s resolve their trade dispute, Rabo expects soybean demand to drag due to the lingering effects of African swine fever, namely slow or limited sow herd rebuilding in China and Southeast Asia.
The analysis shows a 75 percent probability that soybean prices will remain under $9.60 per bushel. For corn and wheat, the report says, “oversupply, flat domestic use, no or little growth in exports, and increased global trade competition” continue to pile up.
Given no changes to ethanol policy, the outlooks call for animal feed to overtake ethanol as the demand driver for corn in 2026/27.