Warmer air starts to work into the state today. While we don’t see the huge warm up that we expect for tomorrow forward, we should get back to near normal temps today. Tomorrow we start to see rather strong southwest winds bump temperatures to well above normal. That temperature pattern lasts 3 days…so do not get used to it!
We have low pressure passing by to the north overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing rain to MI and southern Ontario. This system actually brings a warm front through Indiana, aiding the warm up. But, this also likely drags a little bit of moisture across northern Indiana after midnight tonight through sunrise tomorrow. The best action will be north of US 30, where we can see up to .25” of liquid. Farther south, we think that a few hundredths to a tenth of moisture can be seen down to SR 28. South of there, nothing. Then, through the day, we should see sunshine take back over the region, and temperatures really start to work higher. WE stay dry Friday, but clouds increase, and then we have significant moisture working in for the weekend. Temperatures tomorrow, Friday and Saturday will be 10-15 degrees above normal, but winds from later today through tomorrow also will likely be at least 15-30 mph.
Significant rains start Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. That front slows as it moves through, and this morning we are making changes to our forecast that allow rain to continue over most of the state on Sunday. This will increase rain totals. Saturday we will leave totals at .25”-1”, but can see an additional .25”-1 on Sunday. Combined, we can see half to 2” rains over 90% of the state, but admittedly, the 2” totals will only come in areas where thunderstorms dominate. But, there are plenty of chances for thunderstorms too. We won’t even rule out some severe weather. The map above shows potential precipitation through Sunday afternoon, but we think this model is a little so overzealous on moisture in southern Indiana. The location of the heaviest rain is likely right…the totals are just a little higher than our forecast thoughts. Colder air starts to come in on Sunday behind the front. IT will be a marked change, with winds going NW at 15-30 mph, and our late spring weather will change back to late winter in a hurry.
Clouds and cold air dominate Monday. In fact, we can see some sprinkles and flurries through the day. It will be a cloudy, gray, damp day to start off the following week.
Cold temps dig in for most of the rest of the week. We will be back to temperatures that average 10-15 degrees below normal, powered by NW winds. This will keep clouds coming at us out of the great lakes, and that also means, while we expect dry weather through the end of the week, we won’t rule out sprinkles and flurries from time to time, particularly over northern Indiana. Down south, we see nothing.
For the extended period, we are drier for the 21st through the 24th, as a Canadian high dominates. That means we keep temps cold through the first half of the extended period. A strong front for the 25th brings southwest winds and moderating temps, followed by .25”-1” rains over 80% of the state. Behind that we dry down, but this time, we do not see an incursion of Canadian air. So, we tentatively think we may be able to break this colder pattern by late April. The pattern also looks to support a drier period from the 26th through early May. This may be our first significant chance at field work – if it holds. This is over 2 weeks out…and many, many things can change, but we are giving you our read on it the way we see it this morning.