Cold air came blasting back into the state yesterday…an unwelcome intruder once again. We even saw some wet snowflakes in northern Indiana yesterday, with the ground reported as being covered in parts of Marshall county and St. Joe county. We do not have concern about that today, but we do still have to talk about a cool start to the week. Clouds will be giving way to sun today, and high pressure works into SW Indiana by midday. However, that does mean we still have strong north and northwest flow coming around the front and topside of the high through a large part of the day today. We will transition to south flow around the backside of the high tomorrow into midweek. So, while we likely will not be quite as cold as yesterday, we will still be rather cool across the state today.
Tomorrow turns out partly to mostly sunny and warmer thanks to that south flow. Temps should be normal to above normal over most of the state. Wednesday also looks mild, but sun will give way to clouds through the day. We won’t rule out a few sprinkles later Wednesday afternoon and evening, but really nothing of consequence until Thursday.
On Thursday we have rain and thunderstorms spreading across the state with the potential for some strong to severe weather Thursday night. Right now, we expect rain totals Thursday of .25”-1.5” with 100% coverage. The higher rain totals will come via thunderstorms, but the line of potential action looks significant, so a large part of the state has the potential to get the heavier rains. Showers linger through Friday and Saturday, but with much lighter intensity and lower coverage. On Friday, lingering showers can bring a few hundredths to .15” to 60% of the state, while Saturdays action triggers a few hundredths to .25” over 70% of the state, particularly from I-70 northward. The map shows rain potential for the week, ending midnight Sunday night. With rain potential over 3 days…that means we see no drying there. The cold today limits good drying, so for the week, between now and Saturday, we may see only 1.5-2 days of good, solid drying potential.
We turn out partly sunny on Sunday and see a mix of clouds and sun on Monday, with temps near normal. Rains return next Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms arriving from NW to SE. We end up with 75% coverage over the state for Tuesday with rains of .25”-1”. Then Wednesday we see rains concentrate more on the southern half of the state, with a few hundredths to .4”, mostly from I-70 south. Again, no significant drying there.
The extended period starts off with potentially our longest dry stretch in some time. Currently, we see no significant rain threat from next Thursday (25th) through Sunday (28th). Temps look to be near normal, and this may be our first good drying period for the month. Evaporation rates should be near maximum of .25” of liquid per day. But, given the rains between now and then, we have to ask: “is it enough?” Rains are back for Monday the 29th and Tuesday the 30th, with at least .25”-.75” of liquid potential.