Rain continues today but should taper off and end as we move into the afternoon hours. This afternoon we will see mostly clouds. Much colder air works into the region today and holds into the start of the weekend tomorrow. This system brings the potential for some significant wrap around moisture too, and we will feel some of the effects of that tomorrow. We expect rains to be back tomorrow in eastern and southeast Indiana, but just clouds farther west. In fact, we see better sunshine potential in western Indiana tomorrow afternoon and evening. It will be breezy. Rains tomorrow in eastern Indiana will be up to .3”
Sunday turns out partly sunny for Easter. Temps will start to moderate too, leading to a rather nice day. Do not get used to it.
Next week’s weather pattern has become a little more difficult to pinpoint. Models have diverged dramatically in their projections. The European model is trending much drier for the entire week. Meanwhile, the GFS (American) model keeps moisture around most of the week. Now, we HOPE that the European solution turns out to be right. However, we do not think that is the case. With all the moisture we picked up yesterday, the additional rain today and the wrap around moisture tomorrow…we think the atmosphere will be carrying plenty of moisture as the next troughs move through the eastern corn belt. The true answer for next week likely lies somewhere in-between the two model solutions. For today, we are holding fast to our outlook from the past few days…which brings moisture across the state to start the week, and then we think we can see a bit of an increase in moisture chances Thursday, due to a delay in the final wave of moisture. So, On Monday we expect scattered showers to move into the state, first in the north, and then spread south. We can see rains of .25”-.75” with 50% coverage, and the best chances will be in northern Indiana. Tuesday only a few scattered showers remain, with a few hundredths to a tenth or two, with coverage at 30%. Then for Wednesday, scattered showers return and linger into Thursday, with rain totals up to half an inch. Finally, we should start to dry down next Friday. The map at right shows rain potential through the next 7 days, through midweek next week. Models are in good agreement on a nice, dry set of days next weekend, Saturday and Sunday.
For the extended period, the pattern picks up in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Clouds increase Monday the 29th with rains from late afternoon and evening through the overnight. Those totals come to .25”-.75” with 100% coverage. A bit of dry weather in for Tuesday the 30th, then showers start off the month of May on the 1st, with a chance of .1”-.3” and 80% coverage. A stronger system comes through the region over a 3 day period to finish the 16 day forecast window, form the 2nd through the 4th. This system will bring half to 2” and 90% coverage.
So, the “make it or break it” part of this forecast comes down to next week. If we get the atmosphere to gravitate closer to the European thoughts, that may give large parts of the state a dry period of up to 5 days back to back. However, if we don’t see that, we probably only end up with no more than 2-3 days consecutive with no rain. Temps continue to look normal over the long haul, with a colder push nearby today and tomorrow, and then again, another cold push May 2nd and 3rd.