A few tweaks to the forecast this morning and they are allowing for a few more dry areas to try and develop over the next week. Unfortunately, we don’t think it will be enough to really give a good planting window statewide. Here is what we see this morning.
Nothing really happens today. We should put together another partly to mostly sunny day with temps near to slightly above normal. South winds continue to dominate today, helping the temperatures climb. We will see clouds increase this afternoon into this evening. Then, we start to get some moisture arriving. From tonight through tomorrow, we have scattered showers over the northern half of the state, from I-70 northward. These will have 60% coverage in that area with rain totals of a few hundredths to .4”. Then from tomorrow night through Wednesday, we shift the action south. From I-70 southward we have scattered showers bringing a few hundredths to .3” with 50% coverage. Wednesday night thunderstorms move into the southern half of the state, and we can see rain and thunderstorm action there through midday Thursday. Those showers and thunderstorms can bring .25”-1.25” with 75% coverage. Notice that we see the northern half of the state staying rain free for Wednesday and Thursday. That is key, because we have the entire state rain free with partly to mostly sunny skies for next Friday and Saturday…so that means we can see a 4 day stretch of dry weather with decent to excellent evaporation in the northern part of the state.
Overnight Saturday night, we see some clouds and can’t rule out a few widely scattered showers. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .1” with 40% coverage. This really is not a big deal, but we can’t quite wave the “all clear” flag yet. We will be watching to see if this moisture actually goes away. Behind it we are partly sunny for Sunday. So, if we miss that little batch of rain, we would be dry 5 days straight in northern Indiana, and would look at a 3 day dry stretch in southern Indiana. That is starting to bring just a little excitement and is an improvement in the forecast over what we saw late last week. The map is a look at combined rain potential for the week, with the period ending Sunday night.
However, we finish the 10 day window on a wet note. Rain arrives again for Monday the 29th, bringing .5”-2” over 75% of the state. Scattered showers linger next Tuesday, the 30th and can trigger a few hundredths to .25” with 30% coverage. Then we have rain from I-70 north net Wednesday, May 1st, with potential for .2”-.7” over 60% of the northern half of Indiana. This pattern will bring drying to a screeching halt and will set field work progress potential back once again if it comes to fruition.
In the extended period, additional rains are likely for the May 2-4 time frame, with combined totals at half to 1.5”. Coverage will be around 80% of the state. Then after a couple of days of dry weather, another front is likely around the 6th and 7th that brings up to half an inch over 70% of Indiana. Behind that we may be able to put together a drier forecast window into mid-May.