We have a mostly dry Tuesday for the state today. Yesterday we saw a few pop-up cells develop in northern Indiana purely due to warm air instability. This same kind of set up can be seen today, but there really is not a lot of available moisture here to make those really take off.
Showers and thunderstorms develop over the state starting tomorrow. Scattered showers push in from the west and northwest through the day and may bring .25”-.5” to a mere 30-40% of the state. However, by tomorrow night, the better-organized action will arrive as the cold front gets closer. From tomorrow night through Thursday we can see an additional half to 1.5” over the entire state…100% coverage. There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential here, but the timing of the front’s arrival should help mitigate the worst of that potential (no heating during overnight hours.
For Friday, we see a mix of clouds and sun and we should be dry in a good chunk of the state, but we can see a few scattered showers back by late afternoon and in particular, Friday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through during the day on Saturday, bringing .25”-1” rains with 75% coverage. The best chances will be in central and southern Indiana, while the highest likelihood to miss rain on Saturday will be far to the north.
Sunday should be dry, and we keep that dryness around into the first part of Monday as well. However, we have another potentially strong system arriving Monday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday. This system has plenty of moisture, with half to 1.5” rains over 80% of the state. Some models are really ramping up the threat of thunderstorms, hail and very heavy rain. We think it is too early to really get that hyped up over it, but the low does look like it has some strong circulation. We say this because there will be plenty of clouds and backside moisture looking to rotate in for Wednesday, and you can’t have that without a fairly impressive circulation moving off to the east. Because of that wrap around, we can’t rule out scattered showers Wednesday, but think we are only looking at around 40% coverage statewide. The map above shows potentially combined rain totals from tomorrow through next Wednesday.
We get a nice 4-day dry stretch as we finish the 10-day period and move into the extended window. Sunshine and blue sky dominate from next Thursday through the weekend. This should be a time of excellent evaporation and good dry down in nearly all areas. Then for the balance of the 11-16 day period, we have 2 threats of rain. Scattered showers bringing a half an inch or less for Monday the 27th, and then a stronger, slow-moving front sweeping from NW to SE on the 29th and 30th, triggering some .25”-1” spots of rain. Both systems should have 70% coverage.
Temperatures through the next two weeks should be normal on average for the period. We may see some warming to slightly above normal levels later this week but will offset those with a couple of days slightly below normal. This means we still see no heat stress for crops, and when you look at the total moisture potential through the period, we have nearly perfect rains too – unless any of these storms bring higher than expected rains (which may be a slight concern at this time.