Scattered showers move into the state today and we can see a couple of thunderstorms too. The action will be rather scattered through the daytime hours, today, with only a quarter to a half inch over 40% of the state. However, tonight we have a significant increase in action which holds through the day tomorrow. Moderate to heavy rains are possible, and there is a chance of thunderstorms reaching strong to severe levels. However, thunderstorms will also be widely scattered, and we are not looking at a significant severe weather outbreak at this time, just spotty strong storms. The cold front passes tomorrow morning, but clouds and showers can linger well into tomorrow overnight. Rain totals combined from this system (today through tomorrow) will be from half to 1.5” with 100% coverage. This represents no basic change from our forecast of 24 hours ago.
Clouds linger for a good part of Friday, but we won’t rule out sun mixing in. Showers return Friday night and go through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances look a little better this morning for the first part of the weekend. However, the best chances of rain still look to be in central and southern Indiana. In areas from US 24 southward, we can see .25”-1” rain totals with 70% coverage. North of US 24, we are likely to see a few hundredths to a quarter inch, with coverage at 30%, skewed into NE Indiana.
Sunday should be dry, and we keep that dryness around into the first part of Monday as well. However, we have another potentially strong system arriving Monday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday. We are making no changes to our thoughts on this system this morning, although some models are really showing a significant threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and a strong circulation. We are leaving rain totals at a half to 1.5” rains over 80% of the state. A bit of a change this morning revolves around how quickly the system leaves. A stronger pull to the northeast means we should see precipitation done by late afternoon and evening on Tuesday and less wrap around the potential for Wednesday. We are going to shift Wednesday back to a mostly dry solution. The map above is an updated look at combined rain totals through next Wednesday morning.
From there, we get a nice 4-day dry stretch as we finish the 10-day period and move into the extended window. We are offering no changes to our extended forecast period. Sunshine and blue sky dominate from next Thursday through the weekend. This should be a time of excellent evaporation and good dry down in nearly all areas. Then for the balance of the 11-16 day period, we have 2 threats of rain. Scattered showers bringing a half an inch or less for Monday the 27th, and then a stronger, slow-moving front sweeping from NW to SE on the 29th and 30th, triggering some .25”-1” spots of rain. Both systems should have 70% coverage.