Dry today and tomorrow behind the cold front that moved through late yesterday and last night. Temps will be a couple of degrees cooler today and tomorrow, but the biggest noticeable feature will be lower relative humidity. Overall, it will be a nice change from the past few days.
Our next chance of rain is back for the weekend. Winds shift to the south on the backside of high pressure later tomorrow, and that will bring warm, unstable air back in across all of Indiana. The best set up for rain looks to be still in northern Indiana through the two-day period. While we don’t want to completely rule out spotty showers in southern Indiana, there just is not support for anything more impressive. A recent model run has tried to push the action even farther north, affecting mostly Michigan, but we are not going to go that far, and will not change our forecast that dramatically on one model run only. So, keep an eye out for scattered weekend action, and we are pulling the top end of our range down a bit, looking for a tenth up to .75” with 50% coverage from I-70 northward.
Monday should be dry. However, from there we still are rather unsettled. We will keep scattered showers in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, and likely have to increase chances of moisture for Thursday and Friday. Some models are trying to go drier for that Tuesday and Wednesday period. While we won’t rule that out, we are going more conservative and will be slow to remove moisture from the window for now. We will revisit this through this afternoon and tonight, and if the forecast needs tweaking, we will do it tomorrow morning before going into the long holiday weekend. We will put combined moisture for the week now at .25”-1” with coverage at 70% of the state. Temps stay warm after warming up this weekend, and we should still be 2-8 degrees above normal all week next week.
The extended period has a stronger cold front moving in around the 10th, taking through the 12th to slide through. This will bring some rain chances, up to an inch in spots. But, the strength and location of the front also hint at some significant change in airmass coming behind. In fact, we could be looking at a move to below normal temps closer to mid-month.