The weather pattern is about to change here as we start the week. The above normal temps of this weekend and the high humidity will be replaced by near normal temps. The change comes as a frontal boundary works through the state starting later today and going through tomorrow. Today actually will be somewhat of a transition day, and we likely hold off on precipitation until later this afternoon and especially this evening. Temps today will stay warm, and humidity up, but clouds will build. Rains start in northern Indiana late this afternoon, and by midnight we may see some thunderstorms coming out of Michigan. The moisture works through the rest of the state from there through Tuesday, and we actually see rains linger into Wednesday morning before fizzling out. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.5” over 90% of the state for the system combined. Wednesday will see clouds linger through the balance of the day, even after the rains are done.
We are dry for Thursday and a good chunk of Friday. Sunshine dominates. Temps near normal in the lower to middle 80s.
Our next system shows up as a slow-moving, sagging front working into northern Indiana Friday afternoon. We see no action south of US 24 for Friday, and sun dominates up to sunset that night in central and southern Indiana. But the moisture works south through the day Saturday and will finally end closer to midnight Saturday night. Rain totals are not that impressive and will be mostly from a few hundredths to half an inch, and coverage will only be 60% of the state…there will be a lot of holes in the coverage.
After a brief dry spell Sunday during the day, we get our third wave of moisture coming in Sunday evening and then lingering all the way through Monday midnight. This moisture is scattered in nature again but has much better coverage than the Friday night-Saturday event. We are putting rain totals at a few hundred to .6” with coverage at 80% of the state or better. We move back to dry weather to finish the 10-day period next Tuesday and Wednesday. The map at right is a total of rain potential through the entire 10 day period (all three systems).
In the extended 11-16 period, we still see a front for next Friday, the 17th that bring half to 1-inch rain potential. Coverage should be close to 80% of the state. There is some potential for that front to stall out over Indiana and bring additional rain every day through the end of the extended period, which would be the 21st. Models are divided on that solution, and we think given the pattern, it will be difficult to see that play out, especially if we see temps stay near normal over the period. So, we are trending our forecast drier than that at the moment, with lingering rain into the 19th and perhaps the 19th, but nothing for the 20th and 21st as of this morning.
Temps look to pull back to near normal starting tomorrow and going through the rest of the week and weekend. This is on average. Normals are in the lower to middle 80s and we think we will be at or slightly above those levels on dry days, and near or a degree or two below those levels on days where we have rain. No major concerns for crop growth and development here going forward through mid-August.