We are dry today over the state. The past few days have been very difficult forecast-wise, due to seemingly plentiful instability, both ahead and behind a frontal boundary working into the eastern corn belt. Today we see a brief moment of stable conditions and a lack of any new moisture being introduced into the state. That should allow us to be dry and sunny in most areas. We do have some moisture coming together over the Great Lakes and in particular in Michigan that we have to watch late in the day. It may bring some building clouds to the northern part of the state. But, in general, we should have nice weather today, with temps near normal.
Scattered showers work into far northern Indiana overnight tonight and then continue on to the south through tomorrow. We think most precipitation chances will stop short of I-70 tomorrow. However, the scattered showers move south of I-70 for Saturday. Rain totals for the two days combined will be a few hundredths to .3” with coverage at 60% of the state.
We are mostly dry Sunday, but we can’t rule out a hit and miss shower over a few areas. Monday, showers are back and expanding over the state, bringing a few hundredths to .4” with 60% coverage. We then get 24 to 36 hours of dryness for Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms return for midday Wednesday and last into Thursday. We are continuing to take a very conservative approach to this system, looking for .25”-.75” over 90% of the state. However, the European model still wants to develop a massive storm complex with strong low, heavy rain and severe weather. AT this time, we still do not see any reason to ramp this up that far.
After a bit of a lull, we have to allow scattered showers in for Friday and Saturday with only 40% coverage. These may bring up to a quarter inch of new precipitation, but we also think that if there is a weak link in the forecast, it is here…these could fall apart or just come as some clouds. We are dry for Sunday the 19th into the 20th. The map above shows potential rain totals for the coming 10 days combined.
For the rest of the extended 11-16 day forecast period, we have scattered showers for the 21st through the 24th, a pattern very similar to what we are seeing now. So, overall, our forecast is wetter this morning, with no excessive moisture, but good chances for a majority of our forecast pattern. Our atmosphere is getting well primed to trigger these kinds of days. Precipitation will be scattered over the period, and there will be many areas that miss out on action day today. But over the coming two weeks combined, we all get nice moisture, enough to continue to promote good crop conditions, growth, and development.