Today will be dry but will be a transition day as we start to work into a more active weather pattern from now through the end of the year. Today will feature increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, but temps remain above normal for this time of year. This will be the last dry day until we get to the weekend.
Rain moves into the state tomorrow, bringing a few hundredths to .3”. Then scattered showers of rain and perhaps a few wet snowflakes come in on Friday. Some forecast outlets are really playing up the snow on Friday, but we think it is more of a mixed event, as afternoon highs likely stay from 35 to 40 degrees or better. Still, we won’t rule out wet snow for Friday, we just don’t think it’s a big deal. Overall, combined moisture for the next two days will end up at a half inch or less. Coverage stays at 70% of the state. The map at right shows an update of rain totals through Saturday early morning.
We are dry for most of the weekend…all of Saturday and most of Sunday. We will be turning much colder as temps fall to below normal levels. We are still talking up a chance of some light snow overnight Sunday night through early Monday morning (3 AM or sooner) and leaving snow totals at a coating to at most an inch with 40% coverage. That coverage is skewed more toward the northern half of the state.
We are dry Monday. Christmas Day is becoming more interesting. There is a huge discrepancy between models. The European model brings a major winter storm with snow, some rain and major accumulations, along with wind. However, the GFS model says a little rain late in the day on Christmas, mostly over central and southern Indiana…and oh – it’s going to be warm. This is one of the biggest discrepancies we can remember 7 days out on a system. Right now, we continue to leave our forecast dry for Christmas Day, as that has been our bias to this point. We are going to have to see some data that supports the Euro over the next few days in order to get on to any Christmas storm bandwagon at this time. So, we are dry Christmas in our forecast, and we keep the dry weather through Wednesday and the first half of next Thursday.
From there, we get wet. Rains arrives Thursday night )27th) and holds through Friday the 28th, bringing .2”-.8” and 90% coverage. Then for the extended forecast period, we have snow to the north and rain to the south from Saturday night the 29th through Sunday midday (30th). Then rain is bac for Monday the 31st through Tuesday the 1st. Then we have snow from late the 2nd through the 3rd. So, expect a very active finish to 2018 and an active start to 2019.