Scattered showers move over the state today and tomorrow. Moisture is not all that impressive, bringing a half an inch or less to 60% of the state. There will be plenty of holes in the precipitation coverage today, and overnight tonight through tomorrow, the heaviest action misses us to the east, hitting Ohio. Still, it will be a significant move to a damp period after several days of dry weather. Cold air will follow the system in tomorrow, but we think it really waits to arrive until the moisture is moving off to the east, so we are keeping all of our forecasted precipitation in the form of rain. The map shows precipitation potential through Saturday morning.
Much colder air in for the weekend, and we should be at least partly sunny for Saturday. On Sunday we stay mostly dry, but likely see clouds increase as we move through the afternoon. We can’t rule out a bit of light snow and flurry action overnight Sunday night into very early Monday, but coverage on that minor snow is minimal…perhaps only 20%-30% of the state. Another dry day is on the way for Christmas Eve on Monday.
Christmas day and the days following continue to present a big challenge. Models are in significant disagreement. One says we get 4-8 inches of snow, another says we get all rain – up to an inch, but it does not start until a day later on the 26th. A third model says there is absolutely no threat of precipitation until we get to Friday. So…which interpretation is right? At this point, who knows. We are more comfortable with inserting some precipitation into the forecast this morning over that 3-day period but will not put our any thoughts on type or start time yet. This system is not call-able yet. Just be prepared for some moisture, and it likely ends up in the .25”-1” range liquid equivalent. We will not see moisture all three days, but at least a day’s worth of precipitation somewhere in there.
We end up dry later next Friday through the weekend as temps remain near normal. The extended 11-16 day forecast window looks a little less active this morning, but still can bring a chance of light snow for Monday the 31st into New Year’s Day (minor accumulation) and then again for the evening of the 3rd into the 4th (a fresh coating in spots). Temps start off 2019 normal to below normal statewide.