We a have a dry day post-Christmas today. There will be some clouds around, but generally, a pretty calm, tranquil and trouble free. Temps will start to work higher, but clouds also will be increasing later today, ahead of our next system. A massive storm complex is moving through the plains today, with the low tracking from southeast CO to northeast NE into the upper Midwest. That track keeps us far away from any snow concerns, but still will push moisture into our region.
Rain arrives tomorrow morning and then continues through Friday. The most frequent and intense showers will be with us tomorrow and tomorrow night. Then on Friday, we have lingering hit and miss action, as the event winds down. We likely don’t see dryness over the entire state until closer to sunset Friday. Rain totals will be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. The upper end of the range will be over the southern half to third of the state, while the lower end of the range will be over the northern third of the state. Colder air is on the way behind this system but should wait until overnight Friday night and Saturday before truly taking control, and by then all moisture will be long gone. We have not concern for snow. We will be partly sunny on Saturday. The map at right shows potential total moisture by the end of the day Friday – and it will be all rain.
We do not expect a lot of moisture potential but won’t rule out a coating to 1” of snow with coverage at 60% of the state. The southern third of the state likely sees nothing out of this little wave, as it looks more like a clipper than anything else. We are back to dry weather for Sunday afternoon and evening, and likely even see some breaks of sun for the early part of New Year’s Eve on Monday.
A new wrinkle in the forecast this morning is an acceleration of the arrival of our next system. A surge of moisture pushes up from the south overnight Monday night through New Year’s Day on Tuesday. This will bring some rain back to southern Indiana, .25”-.5” worth of potential, and then a few hundredths to a tenth or two in northern Indiana. Coverage down south will be around 80%, while up north we are closer to 40% coverage. Take the umbrella with you if you plan to be out and about celebrating New Year’s Eve Monday night.
With that next system coming faster, we have dry weather coming back for Wednesday through Friday of next week. Cold air will be in for the first part of that period, but temps likely start to warm again as we move toward the first full weekend of 2019. We have the potential for a strong storm for the night of the 7th through the 8th. Right now, cold air appears to race in at the same time moisture develops, meaning we could see some snow, and there is potential for some good accumulations. But there is still plenty of time for the pattern to shift and the system to evolve.