Much colder air has moved into the state and will park here for a while. The precipitation pattern moves to one that is influenced by the Great Lakes, and one that has very little heavy moisture with it over the next 10 days. As such, our forecast is pretty benign this morning with very few changes, only a few tweaks on timing.
West winds today will not be as strong as yesterday, but will still bring good lake effect snows in over parts of MI. Most of Indiana will be dry through the day. Tomorrow, those winds shift more to the NW, and that will increase lake effect snow potential over northern tier counties in Indiana, mostly Laporte, St. Joe, Elkhart and Lagrange, along with parts of Kosciusko and Marshall. Outside of those areas, we likely do not see any precipitation, and the sun will mix with clouds. For that matter, even if we have some lake effect snow and flurries, the sun will be in and out all day tomorrow. Friday looks to be back to more of a westerly wind, and so just a mix of clouds and sun expected there.
For the weekend, Saturday looks to have a mix of lake enhanced snow up north and a weak clipper like system moving through as well. This can bring scattered snow showers to a good chunk of the state…perhaps up to 60% coverage. We won’t rule out accumulations at this time, but the best chance of those right now look to be in central and southern Indiana, which is a little different. We see better sun chances on Sunday, and it will not be as cold.
For next week, we start with stronger winds out of the west and southwest, allowing temps to climb just a bit. We should be closer to normal on Monday. But, we get some scattered snow and flurry action in for Tuesday into Wednesday, mostly lake enhanced, and that will show the arrival of some colder air again. The best precipitation chances next week come Thursday with snow, about 24 hours later than our previous forecast. The system does not look as well organized at this time, but we still think it is too early to try and change our thoughts on what looks like another clipper event. So, we will keep chances for accumulating snow with the eve4nt, but move it to Thursday instead of Wednesday. The action is gone rather quickly, and we should see sunshine and cold air again for next Friday.
The extended period shows an upper-level low sitting over the region and the great lakes Saturday the 16th, that keeps a chance of scattered snow showers and lake effect snow in for the first half of that weekend. Then a strong cold front sweeps in from the west and northwest around the 18th and has nice moisture flow up the front from the south. This can bring liquid equivalent precipitation of up to half an inch to the state with 90% coverage. Temps will be the key…if we stay cold this would be the first good snow system for the state. However, we think a better solution is for the strong southwest flow to warm temps as the moisture arrives, meaning we start as good rains, and then only end as some snow late on the 18th into the 19th. But…we will see how the system progresses.
Overall this forecast can be summed up as cold, and rather dry – even with snow chances, there is not a lot of moisture to work with here for the next 10 days.