Dry weather develops over the state today and we have this dry pattern holding for 6 days, through next Wednesday. Clouds will allow for some sunshine today, and we see better sunshine potential as we move through the period, although days of dominant sunshine may have a tough time coming together. That is mostly because we have a reinforcing shot of cold air that comes in this weekend, and the cold air over the region into next week will be tough to make cloud-free. Still, this is likely out best dry window for the rest of the month. A system passes by to the south of the region on Sunday into early Monday. We still look for most precipitation to stay south of the Ohio River, but watch for some clouds up into far southern Indiana.
Precipitation returns next Wednesday overnight through Thursday. While temps moderate a little bit, we still think that most moisture falls as light snow. We continue to project a coating to 2 inches over 70% of the state. A second wave of action hits on Friday. This one looks more interesting, as temps put another few degrees on for the day. Friday temps can be from 35-39 over a large part of the state, which would promote a sloppy mix of precipitation types. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be in the few hundredths to .25” range, with coverage at 80%. Right now, we will leave all precipitation types in the forecast and will take another look on Monday morning. Strong winds develop around the low as it rides up the west side of the Appalachians, and we can’t rule out 20-40 mph winds to finish the week and start the weekend. We won’t rule out a bigger snow event out of this system, as it is very strong, but all of that will be very track dependent. The map at right shows precipitation potential for the 2 waves combined through Saturday midday.
In our extended forecast, we are keeping 2 significant events. The first arrives on the 17th and lingers into early the 18th, bringing .1”-.5” totals, mostly over the southern half of the state. A second frontal complex shows up on the 20th. This one has rain potential of .25”-.75” with 80% coverage of the state south of US 30. Temps for the entire 11-16 day window will be above normal, keeping all precipitation liquid.