Our mess is here this morning. We are going to zero in on the “easy” part of this first…and that is that by midday, all precipitation is rain, and it will be moderate to heavy. We expect at least .25” -1” of rain after precipitation changes over today, and that will cover 100% of the state. Now, for the hard part. The freezing line this morning is still in central Indiana, and will work north through the morning. We are still expecting a coating to 2 inches of snow from US 24 northward, and no more than 2-4” (perhaps even 2-3”) event total from US 24 southward- and this includes what already fell overnight. However, we are more concerned about ice this morning in areas from I-70 to US 24 as the warm air surges north. We think that a warm pocket from 2000-5000 feet can develop, and that may be a recipe for freezing rain this morning before the surface warming catches up. The counties we are watching the most are Miami, southern Wabash, Grant, Howard, Tipton and Hamilton…but we are not confining the potential to just there. They may have the highest risk. But, like we led off with…by late morning and midday, we are seeing rain in all areas. The map shows moisture totals (liquid equivalent) for this entire event by midnight tonight.
We are dry for tomorrow and Friday and should see some sunshine for that period. However, we have another significant storm complex coming through for this weekend. Rain arrives Friday night and holds through Saturday over the southern part of the state. WE expect .25”-.6” of rain from US 50 southward. Farther north we see just clouds and limited sun for Saturday. A second surge comes through from Saturday night through Sunday midday and is much stronger. Rain can be from .25”-1.5” over 90% of the state, with the lighter totals still in the far north and far NW. We did drop the top end of the range a bit this morning, with central Indiana rain not looking quite so intense overnight Saturday night.
We turn partly sunny Sunday afternoon, and it will be windy. Winds will likely range from 20-40 mph. Then we put together several nice days from Monday through next Wednesday, with near normal temps and low winds. The next batch of precipitation we are watching rolls in overnight nest Wednesday night into Thursday early morning, bringing .25” to .5” of moisture with 70% coverage. There is a chance that some of that rain ends as snow Thursday morning, with a change to windy, much colder air. That may even allow some flurries to linger all day over far northern Indiana next Thursday.
A quick moving system brings snow for next Friday, a coating to 2 inches. Then for the extended period, we have a nice weekend to start off March: mixed clouds and sun, right on into Monday, the 4th. However, we finish the extended period with a massive rain maker Action may start on Tuesday the 5th with 1-3 inches of wet snow, but then snow turns to rain and through Wednesday the 6th we can see cumulative rain totals at half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. It will be an impressive early March storm.