Much better weather over the state today. After a chilly overnight period where we saw some of yesterday’s moisture re-freeze, we should see a mix of clouds and sun today, with more sunshine as the day wears on. High pressure drifts across the state and ends up in southeast Indiana near sunset tonight. We stay dry for tomorrow and should see good sunshine to start, but clouds will likely start to build in far southern Indiana late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Rain still is on the way for overnight tomorrow night and this weekend. After midnight tomorrow night light rains push into southern Indiana, but generally stay south of US 50 into Saturday morning. Saturday midday and afternoon, we are going to expand the northern reach of the rain through at least I-70, and some very light action may make it all the way up to near Fort Wayne in northeast Indiana. However, north central and NW parts of the state stay dry. A second push of moisture surges in from Saturday night through Sunday morning, but is less impressive. There will likely be a band or two of heavier rain, but coverage of the heavy rain looks smaller this morning. For the two day event, we look for half to 2” rain totals from I-70 southward, with coverage at 90%. The upper end of the range (1.5” and up) will see 50% coverage in southern Indiana. From I-70 northward, a few hundredths to .5” will be about the max we see out of this event. The map shows combined precipitation potential for the event through Sunday morning.
We turn partly sunny Sunday afternoon, and it will be windy. Winds will likely range from 20-40 mph. Then we put together a couple chilly, but nice days Monday and Tuesday. Next Wednesday we have a minor batch of light snow moving through that may give a quick coating to 1 inch over 70% of the state. Then we are dry Thursday.
Next Friday, we see mixed clouds and sun up north, but a chance of a few hundreds to .25” of moisture in southern Indiana. This too is a fast moving system, with most of the state dry by mid to late afternoon. The rest of the 10 day window is dry, with a nice first weekend in March. We expect partly sunny skies for the 2nd and 3rd, with a cool afternoons.
In the extended period we still have a strong system for the 5th and 6th. This event looks to still have both rain and snow with it, but timing really will dictate when we see what type of precipitation. Overall moisture totals look slightly smaller now, but we still think that combined liquid equivalent precipitation totals can be from half to 1” easily, and we need to leave the door open for higher totals. The rest of the 11-16 day window will feature partly sunny but colder weather for the 7th through the 9th.