Moisture looks a little lighter this week, even though the pattern still has plenty of activity with it. Here is a quick rundown this morning.
We have a cold front that sweeps through the state later this evening and through the overnight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of that front today, we should see good south flow, warm air and some sunshine with building clouds. We may have to keep a lookout for a few scattered showers this afternoon over west central and southwest Indiana, but only minor rains spaced very sparse. However, closer to sunset, we see rains spreading over the state with rain totals through 8am tomorrow at .25-.5”, and coverage at 80%/ The higher end of the range will be reserved for areas that see thunderstorms. Shortly after sunrise, the only areas that still see some showers will be close to the OH River, and the rest of the state will be clearing. The map above shows total precipitation potential through 7 am tomorrow morning. We should see sunshine tomorrow over most of the state, but with cooler temps behind the cold front.
Dry weather continues Wednesday with high pressure centered directly over the state. However, on the backside of the high on Thursday, we need to keep an eye out for a few scattered showers and clouds over the northern half of the state. Rain totals are expected to only be a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but it may be enough to wet the ground in over about 40% of the area for Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday should be dry, but we think there can be some clouds building ahead of what can be a somewhat hit and miss weekend with regard to rain. We have a strong low passing by to the north for Saturday and Sunday, with two troughs working through the region. Rains do not look overly impressive, but we do have the potential for a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch both days over about 50% of the state, with combined two day coverage at about 70%. The better day may be Saturday. However, if we see better warming on Friday with stronger south flow, that would serve to enhance thunderstorms threats, which could lead to a shift in those rain totals higher…so we need to watch Friday closely.
Next week starts dry with Monday and Tuesday mostly sunny. However, a strong system works in for next Wednesday with rain totals of .25”-75” and coverage of 80%. Then, in the extended period, we have two more systems, one for the 22nd that brings potential for .25”-1”, but a chance of the rains missing the state more to the NW, and then another system for late in the 16 day window, around the 25th. There we can see potential of another .25”-1” of rain and more of a direct hit.
This forecast pattern is not as wet as what we saw last week, but will still not promote copious amounts of drying just yet. We may be able to see a few guys out in the dirt this week, but starting midweek next week, we likely have to put intentions on the shelf again until very late in the month.