Dry across the state today, but starting tomorrow we will see a significant increase in moiré potential statewide. Strong south flow keeps temps up today, and dew points remain uncomfortably warm as well. Tomorrow scattered showers break out with limited coverage, and then they expand for Thursday and Friday, bringing 3-day rain totals to .25”-.75” with coverage at 70%. We have a concern for higher totals on the upper end of the range but feel that most of that would have to be thunderstorm based to get to an inch of rain. And thunderstorms are not our main expectation.
Dry for the weekend with high pressure taking control.
Our next disturbance is stronger and much more impressive for early next week. Strong rain and thunderstorm action are in over the state for next Monday. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.1” with coverage at 90% of the state. This will be a very significant threat for rain and is a dramatic change over 24 hours ago. While this is a quicker developing system for the week, and it has seeds back in the central plains, it also does not include changes to the potential of a strong storm complex coming out of the central plains later next week. That system is slowing and developing into a powerful wave for later Friday.
Another massive system develops in the central plains for the second half of the week next week. This is on the move late and can bring rains of 1-2” over a majority of the state for next Friday into Saturday. This is delayed a couple of days from yesterdays outlook, mostly due to the early week system being stronger and creating more headlines.
We are leaving the extended forecast period alone this morning, trending wetter. The system for late in the 10-day window triggers lingering moisture for the 11th-14th. We have no reason to change our forecast this morning, so that means we are leaving potential rain totals at an additional half to 1.5” for that period. We may have to tweak those a bit moving forward.