A cold front works through the state today and we have no changes in thoughts on how that front impacts the region. We are looking for .25”- 1.25” rain totals over 90% of the state. As we have stated going back into last week, it will take thunderstorms to get into the upper end of the range. Right now, the NW and west central parts of the state look to have the best shot at thunderstorms this morning, but we don’t want to completely rule anyone else out. By midnight tonight, all action is out of the state off to the east. The map above shows rain potential through midnight tonight.
Dry tomorrow through the weekend. Strong high pressure will come in from the NW and that will drop humidity values dramatically, while allowing for a brief pull back on temps to near normal levels. However, as we transition onto the backside of the high for the second half of the week, we will see temps climb once again, and we expect normal to above normal temps through the weekend.
A slight tweak to next week now. Overall, we continue to see the same basic amount of overall moisture from a system coming through. However, timing continues to bounce around a bit. This morning we are seeing a first wave come through Monday already, bringing rains of .25”-.75” but only 50% coverage. Rains over half an inch will have to come with thunderstorms, but some models are suggesting that we can see some increase in instability for Monday (which would make sense, given our projection of above normal temps for the preceding weekend). If the action fires off Monday, we likely get a brief break Tuesday, and then we are back for wave #2 on Wednesday. That wave can bring another .25”-.75” over about 70% of the state. So, overall, .25”-1” rains are still possible combined, and coverage of at least 75% is possible. This system has been very hard to pin down, though, on its timing, and we think there may be one or two more revisions coming before it hones in on a track and intensity to call its own.
Behind that system, we should be dry for Thursday and Friday. However, we have a front with at least half inch rain potential to start off the Labor day weekend on Saturday, the 2nd. This event has 70% coverage. The rest of the extended period is dry in our forecast at the moment, but we are watching for a minor front trying to nose in closer to the 6th.