INDIANA WEATHER OUTLOOK
While the next couple of days will be fairly calm and somewhat boring, an active pattern still is expected over the state for the month of December. Our active pattern kicks off this weekend, as precipitation moves in from the west later Sunday afte4rnoon and evening. Cold air will be in over at least the northern half to third of the state, enough so that we see some sloppy wet snow flakes as the main precipitation event in the northern third. Liquid totals will be from a few hundredths to .15” overnight Sunday night into early Monday, and that may be enough to bring some minor snow accumulations to northern Indiana, while a rain snow mix works into parts of central IN. statewide coverage will be around 50%.
The balance of Monday should see very little new precipitation, but overnight Monday night through Tuesday, the main body of this system moves through, bringing strong winds, and much heavier rains. WE expect moderate rains to bring totals of .25”-1” with coverage at 90% of the state. There can be some areas that push over an inch but they will be mostly intermittent. The winds and circulation with this feature will be similar to what we saw early this week as the system moved in Sunday night and Monday.
Behind that system, our next little wave moves through late Wednesday night through Thursday. This system brings rains to start, mostly from .1”-.33”, but cold air comes in quickly behind, and we can see up to another tenth of an inch or moisture come in the form of snow. This may leave some minor accumulations too. Slightly dryer weather pushes in behind, but it will be very windy, and very cold, with the winds blasting out of the NW. So…it may or may not be an upgrade…depending on your perception. But, either way, clouds will dominate in the cold air as we finish next week.
In the extended window, the GFS model still wants to bring in a strong storm complex later in the 11-16 day. The only problem we have with this (other than the fact that we think the GFS generally is a flawed, inconsistent and generally bad model most of the time) is that it keeps pushing this “strong storm” back a day each model run. This is the equivalent of the “free beer tomorrow” sign at your local pub….it sounds great, until you finally realize tomorrow (and the free beer) will never come. That is where we are at. So, we are adopting more of a “prove us wrong, mother nature” attitude on the strong storm at mid-month. It makes sense meteorologically that there can and will be one in there, especially with the emergence of this active pattern to start December… but until we get some model agreement and consensus out of one of our more trusted models…we only mention it to keep you on your toes if someone else tries to talk it up (and they will): just stay calm for right now. We’ll let you know when it becomes something to really pay attention to.