Bitter cold air in this morning and it will be duplicated tomorrow morning with temps well below normal, and below zero in spots. However, later tomorrow, winds switch back to the south and we should see some moderation in temps before the day is through. Friday will be a transition, as strong south flow brings up moisture and we gear up for a very active weekend.
Models still have not come to agreement on the weekend system. WE still look for snow to kick off overnight Friday night, with a turn to some rain in the central and southern parts of the state Saturday. Then, cold air races back in overnight Saturday night into Sunday, and we can see some potential for significant snows again in that period. This system remains up in the air, and we do not feel confident putting out any solid forecast on type, changeover times, and amounts, other than to say this system will have a lot of moisture with it. No matter rain, or snow, we will see liquid equivalent precipitation (if it were all rain) of .25”-1” with coverage at nearly 100% of the state. Everything hinges on the track of the low. We will put out our official forecast for snow totals, and geographic coverage tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.
Behind the system, another bitter cold arctic blast comes in to start next week. In fact, temps early next week likely will be colder than what we are experiencing here today and tomorrow. But, we also see a very sharp change coming for the second half of the week.
Strong south flow returns Wednesday, and models are now promoting a change in the pattern for next Wednesday and Thursday. A strong wave comes out of the plains and moves across the Corn Belt. This will bring the potential in for rain for the 21st and 22nd, potentially up to an inch. Air looks warm enough to promote all rain from this system. That may lead to fast snow melt on top of the moderate rains…so we are on the lookout for flooding potential later next week. Now, moving this system forward a couple of days from our thoughts 48 hours ago also means that we should see a drier, more pleasant holiday weekend. AT this point, we look for our next system to come in after Christmas.
WE expect cold air to return in the week between Christmas and New Year’s. Our in house model shows dramatic cold coming in for January…and to half step in that direction just makes sense for the last week of the year.