Dry today and tomorrow, but chilly. Clouds may be a factor today over the northern half of the state, while farther south we should see better sunshine potential. AS high pressure moves in tomorrow, sunny skies will be more prevalent over the state. However, temps are not going to climb very much through the period, and we will see below normal temps as we head into the second half of the weekend.
That cold air is important to address, because we have a very active pattern kicking off late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. WE see a minor wave of moisture moving in for Sunday evening and overnight, and it will be moving into this cold air mass. The good news is that we see only about a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation likely out of the wave, but it will be coming into air that is in the 32-35 degree range over the norther part of the state, which means we may see some sloppy wet snow Sunday night, and some minor accumulations. IF it were all snow, that liquid would only produce a coating to an inch or so…but it will be enough to make the period memorable. Our first map shows potential snow accumulations by 7 am Monday morning. We should be dry the rest of Monday, but a second, stronger wave is set to move in just ahead of daybreak Tuesday, and last into early Wednesday. This wave comes up a cold front that will be sweeping through during the period (the Sunday night action likely breaks out along a warm front). This SW to NE surge will bring .25’-1” or better rains to the state with nearly 100% coverage. If looking for good news, take heart: strong south winds will raise temps, and the precipitation will be fully rain. In fact, moisture is well off to the northeast before cold air arrives, so we now have little to no concern or mention of this event ending as snow over the state Wednesday morning. But…there is plentiful moisture in here with the wave. The second map is a snap shot of potential precipitation at 7 am Tuesday morning…with the precipitation type being all rain
After a brief break, yet another front sweeps through quickly from Wednesday night through Thursday. This wave acts very much like an Alberta clipper type system, sweeping through fast, with some, but not a lot of precipitation. The leading edge will be liquid again, with up to a quarter of an inch likely. Where we remain a little undecided this morning is how the action ends. We think that cold air blasts in quickly behind the front, and we may see some precipitation end as wet snow and have some accumulation. However, that is not set in stone, and we will be monitoring new model information on that this weekend. Stay tuned for an update first thing Monday morning.
Behind that clipper, cold, windy, somewhat nasty weather will be in. WE do not see any new precipitation, but it will feel very much like winter, and we expect below normal temps over the entire area. In the extended window, we are throwing the GFS model out, as it continues to try and tout a big, classic winter storm in the extended period, but fails to move it forward in time. Our thought is that we will continue the active pattern through at least the 21st with systems ever 3 days or so, which would give us 2 fronts in the extended period with potential of at least half an inch or liquid. With the cold air advancing toward the end of the 10 day period, it is conceivable that one or both of those fronts would be snow producing for us, but we are not going to get too bullish on that right now. To us, the pattern looks just plain active and increasingly colder through into the second half of the month.