An arctic front blasted through overnight, and we now embark on a much colder journey. There really is not much that has changed over the past 24 hours. Most of the state will be dry, but cold today and tomorrow into early Saturday. Lake effect snow will blast MI, and will push down into Northern Indiana. My thoughts on lake effect are unchanged too. Today, we look for lake effect to become an issue in LaPorte, St. Joe, and Elkhart counties, and to a lesser extent in Lagrange and Stueben counties. Western Michigan will get hammered. In Indiana, we look for the best accumulations today into tomorrow morning from the Toll road northward, and then on again-off again lake snows down to US 6. South of 6, precipitation will be pretty limited from the lake effect event, but wildly variable clouds will work through all the way down to US 24. The farther south you go in the state, the better chance at seeing some sun today and tomorrow.
Clouds build back in on Saturday ahead of our next system. Models are dramatically different on their take on the system. The GFS model says 2-6 inches over about 60% of the state, while the European has totals of 3-14 inches over 80% of the state, with the northern half of the state snowed in for the first half of next week. We usually like the Euro, but in this case, it is likely overdoing the precipitation just a bit. The track looks right, though, with action beginning overnight Saturday night, and continuing through Sunday and most of Monday. The heaviest precipitation will be Sunday, especially midday and afternoon. We have not deviated from our working theory around 3-8 inch snows over northern half of Indiana, and a mix of rain and snow south that can produce a slushy few inches. But, we will put out our official snow totals and coverage tomorrow morning, so stay tuned. Either way, it will be an absolute mess over the state the second half of this weekend and for the start of the work week. The map above is the GFS snow accumulations through Monday evening. We can’t show you the European (licensing issues) but suffice to say…it has a lot more red on it!
Arctic air gets a reinforcing shot next week. Single digit temps are likely for midweek, and the second half of the week. WE will see a couple of clipper waves coming through with potential for blasts of light, dry snow, one Tuesday, and one again late in the week. The snow will not be overly impressive, but will have the ability to bring some minor accumulations. Temps will be bitterly cold all the way down into southern Indiana. Another blast with snow potential comes in for next weekend, with a coating to 2 inches possible over about 60% of the state.