Moisture looks to be a mere inconvenience today, fizzling out to nearly nothing once all is said and done. We won’t rule out spits and sprinkles giving a few hundredths to a tenth or so today, but only over about 50% of the state. The rains just have evaporated as our frontal boundary has moved east. Clouds will be a bigger deal than the chance of moisture today.
We dry out with sunshine returning tomorrow and holding into Thursday. Temps remain above normal. However, our next system begins its move into the state late Thursday afternoon and evening. A warm front lifts across the state, and will likely put down some decent rains over the northern half to third of the state after midnight Thursday through Friday morning. Rain totals there can be from .1”-.5” with 70% coverage over from I-70 northward. The higher end of the range will be in far northern Indiana, closer to the MI line. A cold front follows that warm front later Friday afternoon and evening. That cold front can bring another .1”-.4”, but will have better coverage in areas that did not see action from the warm front. All told, we like statewide coverage of rain from the event at 80%, with rain totals of .25”-.5”, and a few areas might be just a bit above that top end of the range.
Colder air is in for the weekend over all the state. However, remember, it is still late February, even in spite of what the temps were over the past week. While the air is going to be much colder, it does not look to really be below normal over the state. Even so, there can be some lingering moisture early Saturday and the winds will be strong down the fetch of Lake Michigan, such that we have to keep an eye out for some snow over the northern third of the state, and there can be some lake effect snows in the typical areas in north central Indiana. WE don’t think this is too big of a story, but the snows, if they materialize, will catch a lot more attention after a week of 50s and 60s leading up to them.
Next week we still see a very strong system moving through for Tuesday the 28th through Wednesday March 1. This system has .25”-1.25” rain potential with coverage at 100% of the state. There is still some concern about some strong thunderstorms with the system and some heavy rains, especially Wednesday. Temps will be warmer than this weekend, leading to all rain and they will be a good 10 degrees above normal at least.
In the extended window, we still look for another front around the 7th of March, brining rain once again. Rain totals can be up to at least half an inch.