Rain and heavy thunderstorms move across the state today. The heaviest thunderstorm action this morning will be in over the northern part of the state, with stronger storms re-firing over southern Indiana later this afternoon and evening. All told we like rains of .5”-2” over about 60% of the state. We think there will be some decent holes in this event, and there will be some areas that get missed. The map above shows potential rain totals through midnight tonight.
The rest of the forecast is basically unchanged. Dry weather is on the way starting tomorrow, although there will be a potential for some lingering and renegade showers in southeastern parts of the state tomorrow morning. Clouds hold over the rest of the state and that will make it easy for an isolated spit or sprinkle to pop up too. However, after the days of heavy rain, this will be a minor little blip. Strong high pressure takes full control for the weekend and holds through next week. Temps will climb and we see mostly rain-free weather through the period. A warm front dragging through the state late Sunday night into Monday morning may trigger a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms over the state, but we do not feel that coverage will be any more than 20% or so, and moisture totals will be minor. Later in the week, as we move from the 21st into the 22nd, we do have a better front moving in, which will bring rains to about 60-70% of the state. We like rain totals of .05”-.5”, but find ourselves moving back to a dry pattern for the rest of the extended period. WE do see some minor moisture getting trapped underneath the ridge and subsequent high-pressure area, and that may lead to a few more pop up thunderstorms. WE also have a weak trough coming in around the 24th that can bring up to half an inch of rain as well, but the rest of the period is dry. The next front may not arrive until closer to the 30th and 31st.
Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow as we finally get a change in air mass behind today’s frontal passage. But, as South winds return this weekend, temps bounce back, and we should spend most of next week above normal. Temps will be much warmer in the Western Corn Belt, but we should see a nice run of above normal temps with our dry weather next week here as well.